This result, along with dominance of AI in chess, go, and poker, paint a precursor to the future of war. As venture capitalists ogle over the potential of Generative AI to change knowledge work, we are not addressing the obvious application of AI towards military power, and the very clear risks that America will be outpaced.Ī recent AI system, CICERO, achieved human-level performance in Diplomacy, a strategy game requiring negotiation and manipulation of other human players. The pace of AI research is following its own Moore’s law-every 2 years, the number of AI papers published per month doubles. In the past few years, breakthroughs have enabled AI systems to generate imagery, text, code, and even reason. We are in the midst of a renaissance of AI in the commercial sector. Aircraft carriers are giant targets in the sea compared to autonomous, adaptive drone swarms. Our legacy military platforms, while still important, will be disrupted by cheaper autonomous drone fleets. AI applied to satellite imagery and other sensor data has already enabled targeting and tracking of Russian troops and generals. The future is clear-AI-powered targeting and autonomous drones will define warfare. Technologies including drones, AI-based targeting and imagery intelligence, and Javelin missiles have allowed for a shocking defense of Ukraine against Russia, despite their nearly $300B in defense spending over the past 5 years. The Ukraine war is already demonstrating that the tech stack for war has changed. Will authoritarianism prevail over democracy? Do we want to find out? The AI War is at the core of the future of our world. The United States, both the government and AI technologists, need to start acting. The faster that we confront this reality, the faster we can act in ensuring America does not lose.Ĭhina is currently outpacing the United States (for which there are numerous supporting facts). The AI winner of this decade will be economically and militarily dominant for the next 50 years. The next era of war and deterrence will be defined by AI.
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